Quarterback is one of the most important positions in all sports, if not the most important. With this highly acclaimed role comes great salaries.
With every new season, the NFL makes changes, one of which usually includes the cap ceiling. Since 2015, the cap has progressed as such:
The annual increase of the salary cap comes with the inevitable increase of the pay of quarterbacks. The highest cap number of a quarterback in 2015 was $23,800,000 (Drew Brees, NO), in 2020 was $31,409,000 (Dak Prescott, DAL), and in 2025 was $50,518,430 (Dak Prescott, DAL).
We are currently living in the most expensive era of quarterback play in NFL history. The financial landscape has shifted; however, more money has not always meant enhanced play. This leads us to examine: How did a quarterback’s cap percentage in relation to the entire team correlate with regular season performance in 2025?
To assess this, the cap numbers, cap percentages, and team records were identified. The quarterback that was paid the highest for each team was used for the data.
AFC
| Quarterback | Cap Number | Cap Percentage | Team W-L |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | $36,355,281 | 13.1% | 12-5 (.706) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | $8,327,219 | 2.6% | 14-3 (.824) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | $39,313,647 | 14.08% | 7-10 (.412) |
| Justin Fields (NYJ) | $8,000,000 | 2.9% | 3-14 (.176) |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | $14,150,000 | 5.0% | 10-7 (.588) |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | $43,500,000 | 15.6% | 8-9 (.471) |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | $45,999,784 | 16.0% | 6-11 (.353) |
| Deshaun Watson (CLE) | $35,971,514 | 11.1% | 5-12 (.294) |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | $17,000,000 | 5.7% | 13-4 (.765) |
| CJ Stroud (HOU) | $9,894,339 | 3.4% | 12-5 (.706) |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | $14,000,000 | 5.0% | 8-9 (.471) |
| Cam Ward (TEN) | $8,879,928 | 3.0% | 3-14 (.176) |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | $4,230,265 | 1.5% | 14-3 (.824) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | $37,345,675 | 13.2% | 11-6 (.647) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | $28,062,269 | 9.8% | 6-11 (.353) |
| Geno Smith (LV) | $40,000,000 | 12.7% | 3-14 (.176) |
NFC
| Quarterback | Cap Number | Cap Percentage | Team W-L |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | $21,869,800 | 7.5% | 11-6 (.647) |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | $50,518,430 | 16.5% | 7-9-1 (.412) |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | $8,578,784 | 2.9% | 5-12 (.294) |
| Russell Wilson (NYG) | $11,029,412 | 3.8% | 4-13 (.235) |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | $8,974,104 | 3.2% | 11-6 (.647) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | $29,722,437 | 10.0% | 9-7-1 (.529) |
| J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | $4,966,999 | 1.7% | 9-8 (.529) |
| Jared Goff (DET) | $32,600,000 | 10.7% | 9-8 (.529) |
| Bryce Young (CAR) | $10,351,384 | 3.7% | 8-9 (.889) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | $26,475,000 | 9.3% | 8-9 (.889) |
| Kirk Cousins (ATL) | $40,000,000 | 14.1% | 8-9 (.889) |
| Tyler Shough (NO) | $1,964,496 | 0.7% | 6-11 (.353) |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | $13,400,000 | 4.7% | 14-3 (.824) |
| Matt Stafford (LAR) | $47,466,666 | 16.9% | 12-5 (.706) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | $9,119,253 | 2.7% | 12-5 (.706) |
| Kyler Murray (ARI) | $43,325,677 | 14.8% | 3-14 (.176) |
Clearly, the cap percentages of every quarterback varies, which is due to talent discrepancies, cap structuring, and the possibility of the quarterback playing on their rookie deal.
With a correlation of -0.1189, the strength is weak. When looking at the dataset, the cap percentage of a quarterback has a minimal relation to the team outcome. Since there is an inverse relationship, as a quarterback’s cap percentage increases, win percentage tends to decrease.
Paying a quarterback a large amount of money is not some kind of death sentence, but it does not guarantee a flourishing win percentage either. Many quarterbacks, such as Kyler Murray or Geno Smith, were paid inflated salaries that did not match their game play. Quarterbacks playing on their rookie contracts, such as Bo Nix or Drake Maye, performed at an elite level for nominal pay, which allowed for the rest of the money to be spread to other positions. Josh Allen and Matt Stafford are good examples of quarterbacks that are paid great amounts of money, yet match and exceed the level of play that is expected with a grand contract.
All in all, teams should be cautious before deciding to pay a quarterback a large sum of money. When an organization is prepared to structure a deal, it is important that they are confident in the surrounding pieces to ensure a holistically functional team.
