While the NHL playoffs are in full swing, the draft, which takes place from June 26th to 27th, draws closer.
Teams draft based on value, meaning the elite players tend to leave in the first round; however, how much of a correlation does draft position have with future NHL pay?
To assess this, the 2019 draft was selected to identify a player pool. Since all of the players drafted in 2019 would not be playing on any sort of rookie deal, this year was chosen. The draft selections (1-217) were identified using Elite Prospects records. The current pay of the 2019 draftees was determined with Spotrac, using the 2025-2026 Salary Cap Hit metric.
The independent variable in this study was the draft number of a given player, and the dependent variable was the salary cap hit of a given player in the 2025-2026 season. For players that are free agents, or are retired, their 2025-2026 salary cap hit was listed as 0 for the purposes of this study.
All seven rounds of the 2019 draft were analyzed holistically:
A correlation of r=-0.51 was found, indicating a negative, moderate relationship. The negative correlation indicates that as draft number increases, 2025-2026 salary cap hit decreases. Since the relationship is moderate, it creates the idea that while having a higher draft number points toward success, there is still variance in future pay. An r2 value of 26% was found, meaning that 74% of the factors that go into salary cap hit do not include draft number.
The first round of the 2019 draft was analyzed individually:
A correlation of r=-0.64 was found, indicating a negative, moderate-strong relationship. The negative correlation suggests that as draft number increases, 2025-2026 salary cap hit decreases. Since the relationship is moderate-strong, it creates the idea there is a greater chance of higher pay when being paid closer to the latter end of the first round, there remains a certain degree of variance. An r2 value of 40% was found, meaning that 60% of the factors that go into salary cap hit do not include draft number.
The second round of the 2019 draft was analyzed individually:
A correlation of r=-0.45 was found, indicating a negative, moderate relationship. The negative correlation suggests that as draft number increases, 2025-2026 salary cap hit decreases. Since the relationship is moderate, it creates the idea that while having a higher draft number points toward success, there is still variance in future pay.
| 1 | 8000000 |
| 2 | 4525000 |
| 3 | 3362500 |
| 4 | 6250000 |
| 5 | 775000 |
| 6 | 8550000 |
| 7 | 7100000 |
| 8 | 4580917 |
| 9 | 5750000 |
| 10 | 0 |
| 11 | 775000 |
| 12 | 7000000 |
| 13 | 4500000 |
| 14 | 5150000 |
| 15 | 7850000 |
| 16 | 2900000 |
| 17 | 1450000 |
| 18 | 4000000 |
| 19 | 775000 |
| 20 | 800000 |
| 21 | 775000 |
| 22 | 775000 |
| 23 | 3625000 |
| 24 | 1750000 |
| 25 | 2100000 |
| 26 | 775000 |
| 27 | 775000 |
| 28 | 775000 |
| 29 | 0 |
| 30 | 900000 |
| 31 | 775000 |
| 32 | 3750000 |
| 33 | 775000 |
| 34 | 1500000 |
| 35 | 813750 |
| 36 | 2000000 |
| 37 | 775000 |
| 38 | 775000 |
| 39 | 925000 |
| 40 | 3000000 |
| 41 | 825000 |
| 42 | 0 |
| 43 | 4600000 |
| 44 | 0 |
| 45 | 0 |
| 46 | 1412500 |
| 47 | 1100000 |
| 48 | 0 |
| 49 | 775000 |
| 50 | 775000 |
| 51 | 775000 |
| 52 | 775000 |
| 53 | 0 |
| 54 | 0 |
| 55 | 0 |
| 56 | 775000 |
| 57 | 775000 |
| 58 | 0 |
| 59 | 0 |
| 60 | 1125000 |
| 61 | 0 |
| 62 | 775000 |
| 63 | 775000 |
| 64 | 0 |
| 65 | 0 |
| 66 | 0 |
| 67 | 783333 |
| 68 | 900000 |
| 69 | 0 |
| 70 | 0 |
| 71 | 0 |
| 72 | 0 |
| 73 | 0 |
| 74 | 775000 |
| 75 | 775000 |
| 76 | 775000 |
| 77 | 0 |
| 78 | 0 |
| 79 | 1835000 |
| 80 | 775000 |
| 81 | 825000 |
| 82 | 0 |
| 83 | 0 |
| 84 | 0 |
| 85 | 0 |
| 86 | 0 |
| 87 | 0 |
| 88 | 0 |
| 89 | 0 |
| 90 | 775000 |
| 91 | 0 |
| 92 | 0 |
| 93 | 775000 |
| 94 | 0 |
| 95 | 1500000 |
| 96 | 0 |
| 97 | 0 |
| 98 | 3425000 |
| 99 | 825000 |
| 100 | 875000 |
| 101 | 1000000 |
| 102 | 0 |
| 103 | 0 |
| 104 | 0 |
| 105 | 0 |
| 106 | 0 |
| 107 | 0 |
| 108 | 0 |
| 109 | 775000 |
| 110 | 0 |
| 111 | 0 |
| 112 | 775000 |
| 113 | 0 |
| 114 | 4175000 |
| 115 | 0 |
| 116 | 0 |
| 117 | 0 |
| 118 | 0 |
| 119 | 0 |
| 120 | 775000 |
| 121 | 0 |
| 122 | 0 |
| 123 | 0 |
| 124 | 0 |
| 125 | 1556667 |
| 126 | 0 |
| 127 | 0 |
| 128 | 0 |
| 129 | 0 |
| 130 | 0 |
| 131 | 0 |
| 132 | 0 |
| 133 | 0 |
| 134 | 0 |
| 135 | 0 |
| 136 | 775000 |
| 137 | 0 |
| 138 | 0 |
| 139 | 0 |
| 140 | 0 |
| 141 | 0 |
| 142 | 0 |
| 143 | 0 |
| 144 | 0 |
| 145 | 0 |
| 146 | 0 |
| 147 | 0 |
| 148 | 0 |
| 149 | 0 |
| 150 | 0 |
| 151 | 0 |
| 152 | 0 |
| 153 | 0 |
| 154 | 0 |
| 155 | 0 |
| 156 | 850000 |
| 157 | 0 |
| 158 | 0 |
| 159 | 1125000 |
| 160 | 0 |
| 161 | 975000 |
| 162 | 0 |
| 163 | 0 |
| 164 | 0 |
| 165 | 0 |
| 166 | 825000 |
| 167 | 0 |
| 168 | 0 |
| 169 | 0 |
| 170 | 0 |
| 171 | 0 |
| 172 | 787500 |
| 173 | 0 |
| 174 | 0 |
| 175 | 0 |
| 176 | 0 |
| 177 | 0 |
| 178 | 0 |
| 179 | 0 |
| 180 | 0 |
| 181 | 0 |
| 182 | 0 |
| 183 | 0 |
| 184 | 0 |
| 185 | 0 |
| 186 | 0 |
| 187 | 775000 |
| 188 | 775000 |
| 189 | 0 |
| 190 | 0 |
| 191 | 855000 |
| 192 | 0 |
| 193 | 0 |
| 194 | 0 |
| 195 | 0 |
| 196 | 0 |
| 197 | 0 |
| 198 | 0 |
| 199 | 0 |
| 200 | 0 |
| 201 | 775000 |
| 202 | 775000 |
| 203 | 775000 |
| 204 | 0 |
| 205 | 0 |
| 206 | 0 |
| 207 | 0 |
| 208 | 775000 |
| 209 | 0 |
| 210 | 1250000 |
| 211 | 0 |
| 212 | 0 |
| 213 | 0 |
| 214 | 850000 |
| 215 | 0 |
| 216 | 925000 |
| 217 | 0 |
