No matter what league, sports drafts introduce a young group of players that will eventually represent the next generations of play. In the eight different analyses of the 2019 and 2020 drafts among Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Football League (NFL), the National Basketball Association (NBA), and the National Hockey League (NHL), there were many similarities and differences found in the correlation between draft number and current pay.
The following table represents the correlation between draft number and current pay for all rounds of each individual draft:
| League | 2019 | 2020 |
| MLB | r=-0.49 | r=-0.21 |
| NFL | r=-0.39 | r=-0.43 |
| NBA | r=-0.59 | r=-0.49 |
| NHL | r=-0.51 | r=-0.52 |
The data that has risen from the 2019 and 2020 drafts reveal a negative correlation between draft number and current pay in the MLB, NFL, NBA, and NHL. These negative r-values confirm the generally understood idea that since earlier draft picks tend to be more talented than their later selected peers, they secure higher pay in the future.
The strength of the relationship between draft number and current pay varies per sport, yet most maintain a moderate relationship. The NBA and NHL portray the strongest correlations, with the 2019 NBA draft displaying the most robust relationship (r=-0.59). The NFL maintains the most moderate relationship out of all four leagues, which could be due to larger roster sizes (greater variation in talent/more opportunities to identify talent). The MLB acts as an anomaly, with the 2020 draft presenting an overall correlation of r=-0.21. This drop from a correlation of r=-0.49 in 2019 suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic may have had an impact on the future financial turnout of players.
The following table represents the correlation between draft number and current pay for the first round of each individual draft:
| League | 2019 | 2020 |
| MLB | r=-0.60 | r=-0.16 |
| NFL | r=-0.38 | r=-0.20 |
| NBA | r=-0.46 | r=-0.16 |
| NHL | r=-0.64 | r=-0.64 |
All of the data from the first rounds of the 2019 and 2020 drafts present a negative correlation between draft number and current pay, which follows the precedent set by the cumulative data from all rounds of each draft. The negative r-values corroborate the idea that as draft number increases, current pay decreases. This is largely due to the fact that the higher-end, elite athletes fall off the board earlier than those who have more flawed abilities.
While the negative correlation remains, there is a greater variance in the strength of the relationship in the first round alone than all rounds. This is likely due to external factors such as injury or organizational context.
The following table represents the correlation between draft number and current pay for the second round of each individual draft:
| League | 2019 | 2020 |
| MLB | r=-0.22 | r=0.10 |
| NFL | r=0.06 | r=-0.25 |
| NBA | r=-0.29 | r=0.16 |
| NHL | r=-0.45 | r=0.05 |
Unlike the data found from all rounds and the first rounds of the 2019 and 2020 drafts, some of the relationships present a positive relationship. Half of the drafts have a positive correlation, which means that as draft number increases, current pay also increases. All of the drafts that possess a positive correlation also have a weak correlation, suggesting that the positive trajectory is due to the random success of players selected in the middle to end of the second round.
The only draft that presented a moderate correlation in the second round was the NFL in 2019, and the rest presented a weak correlation. This is likely due to the greater variance in talent of players selected in the second round, and their diminished talent in comparison to players selected in the first round.
