The Odds of a One

A basketball hoop and backboard set against a clear blue sky, capturing the essence of outdoor sports.

With the inaugurating games of the 2026 March Madness tournament right around the corner, fans and non-fans alike are ready to compete with their brackets in a tournament of their own. Teachers will grow irritable as their students beg to watch a mid-day game, and gamblers will prosper when their five dollar bet turns gold. 

History of No.1 Seeds

For those unfamiliar with basketball, or college basketball in particular, many will select the first seeded teams to go the furthest; however, only one time in the last ten years have all four number one seeded teams made it to the final four (2025). 

Over the last decade, the amount of number one seeds making it to the final four is as follows:

  • Zero: 1 (2023)
  • One: 3 (2016, 2019, 2022)
  • Two: 4 (2017, 2018, 2021, 2024)
  • Three: 1 (2015)
  • Four: 1 (2025)
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Hence, it is most probable that either one or two of the number one seeds will succeed to the final four. Even though only a select amount of number one seeds usually make it to the final four, a number one seed has taken home the glory 80% of the time over the last ten years. Therefore, the smartest strategy is not to back every favorite, but to be selective. In March Madness, the journey is unpredictable, but the destination usually belongs to the elite. 

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