Impact of 3PA/3P% on NBA Finals Outcomes

With the New York Knicks’ win over the San Antonio Spurs in the 2026 NBA Finals, chaos is ensuing throughout the Knicks’ loyal fanbase and New York City. 

In the NBA Finals, trends suggest that 3-point attempts (3PA) drop in comparison to the regular season. In the most recent series, the San Antonio Spurs have made a stab at 186 shots outside of the paint, and the New York Knicks have tried for 3 points 180 times. 

The relatively similar amount of 3PAs in the 2026 NBA Finals suggest that the amount of shots taken outside of the paint does not have a clear correlation with success, yet how has the 3PA/3P% (3-point percentage) impacted outcomes in the past?

To assess this, the 1980-2024 NBA seasons (1981-2025 NBA Finals) were assessed. Data for 3PA/3P% was found using Basketball Reference. Data for champion, runner-up, and Finals record was also found using Basketball Reference. 

Historical Trends

As seen in the data table, the amount of 3PA per series has increased drastically throughout the years. In the 1981 Finals, there were a total of 28 shots taken outside of the paint, which is juxtaposed by the 366 total shots taken outside of the paint in the 2026 Finals. Further, the average 3P% for both teams in the 1981 Finals was .225, which has seen an increase to .353 in the 2026 Finals.  

Years	Total 3PA (Average/Series)	Average 3P%
1981-1990	53.9	0.281
1991-2000	165.9	0.33
2001-2010	182.2	0.333
2011-2020	321.6	0.371
2021-2025	385.2	0.356

Clearly, teams have become more aggressive when it comes to shooting threes. This is likely due to the fact that the game has become more competitive and has generally advanced with new technology and research. While there has been a dip in 3P% for the current decade, the trend suggests that with time, 3P% generally improves. 

Champions vs. Runners-Up

While it has been established that 3PA and 3P% has increased since the 1981 Finals, how do those variables impact outcomes?

Of the 45 teams analyzed, 26 of the winning teams attempted more three-pointers than the runners-up, and 25 of the winning teams had a higher 3P% than the runners-up. It is noted that in the 2017 Finals, the 3P% was the same for the Golden State Warriors (champion) and Cleveland Cavaliers. 

Considering the fact that 57.8% of the teams that had more 3PAs won the Finals, the volume of three-pointers cannot be used as a reliable predictor of the final outcome. Additionally, the idea that 55.6% of the teams that had a higher 3P% suggests that while completing more attempts is beneficial, it is not the determining factor of the series result.

All in all, while a greater amount of 3PAs and a higher 3P% points toward greater chances of success, series context and a team’s certain talents has a greater impact on the overall outcome of the series. 

Years	Champion	Runner-Up	Score	C 3PA	R 3PA	Total 3PA	C 3P%	R 3P%
1980-1981	Boston Celtics	Houston Rockets	4-2	17	11	28	0.176	0.273
1980-1982	Los Angeles Lakers	Philadelphia 76ers	4-2	9	14	23	0.111	0.286
1982-1983	Philadelphia 76ers	Los Angeles Lakers	4-0	3	15	18	0	0.2
1983-1984	Boston Celtics	Los Angeles Lakers	4-3	24	18	42	0.375	0.333
1984-1985	Los Angeles Lakers	Boston Celtics	4-2	23	34	57	0.348	0.382
1985-1986	Boston Celtics	Houston Rockets	4-2	34	17	51	0.353	0.294
1986-1987	Los Angeles Lakers	Boston Celtics	4-2	41	42	83	0.39	0.333
1987-1988	Los Angeles Lakers	Detroit Pistons	4-3	40	31	71	0.25	0.29
1988-1989	Detroit Pistons	Los Angeles Lakers	4-0	20	43	63	0.25	0.302
1989-1990	Detroit Pistons	Portland Trail Blazers	4-1	56	47	103	0.446	0.234
1990-1991	Chicago Bulls	Los Angeles Lakers	4-1	21	46	67	0.238	0.283
1991-1992	Chicago Bulls	Portland Trail Blazers	4-2	65	52	117	0.385	0.192
1992-1993	Chicago Bulls	Phoenix Suns	4-2	69	62	131	0.464	0.435
1993-1994	Houston Rockets	New York Knicks	4-3	121	105	226	0.306	0.343
1994-1995	Houston Rockets	Orlando Magic	4-0	92	118	210	0.402	0.347
1995-1996	Chicago Bulls	Seattle Super Sonics	4-2	137	102	239	0.263	0.314
1996-1997	Chicago Bulls	Utah Jazz	4-2	112	85	197	0.348	0.412
1997-1998	Chicago Bulls	Utah Jazz	4-2	88	60	148	0.295	0.217
1998-1999	San Antonio Spurs	New York Knicks	4-1	62	54	116	0.339	0.204
1999-2000	Los Angeles Lakers	Indiana Pacers	4-2	92	116	208	0.38	0.422
2000-2001	Los Angeles Lakers	Philadelphia 76ers	4-1	75	59	134	0.48	0.288
2001-2002	Los Angeles Lakers	New Jersey Nets	4-0	61	59	120	0.475	0.305
2002-2003	San Antonio Spurs	New Jersey Nets	4-2	75	83	158	0.32	0.277
2003-2004	Detroit Pistons	Los Angeles Lakers	4-1	66	89	155	0.318	0.247
2004-2005	San Antonio Spurs	Detroit Pistons	4-3	128	75	203	0.398	0.24
2005-2006	Miami Heat	Dallas Mavericks	4-2	105	116	221	0.305	0.284
2006-2007	San Antonio Spurs	Cleveland Cavaliers	4-0	78	75	153	0.372	0.293
2007-2008	Boston Celtics	Los Angeles Lakers	4-2	121	124	245	0.43	0.347
2008-2009	Los Angeles Lakers	Orlando Magic	4-1	86	115	201	0.372	0.33
2009-2010	Los Angeles Lakers	Boston Celtics	4-3	125	107	232	0.28	0.308
2010-2011	Dallas Mavericks	Miami Heat	4-2	124	130	254	0.411	0.346
2011-2012	Miami Heat	Oklahoma City Thunder	4-1	98	105	203	0.429	0.305
2012-2013	Miami Heat	San Antonio Spurs	4-3	148	150	298	0.432	0.407
2013-2014	San Antonio Spurs	Miami Heat	4-1	118	116	234	0.466	0.397
2014-2015	Golden State Warriors	Cleveland Cavaliers	4-2	186	167	353	0.36	0.293
2015-2016	Cleveland Cavaliers	Golden State Warriors	4-3	170	252	422	0.329	0.373
2016-2017	Golden State Warriors	Cleveland Cavaliers	4-1	186	173	359	0.382	0.382
2017-2018	Golden State Warriors	Cleveland Cavaliers	4-0	136	122	258	0.375	0.295
2018-2019	Toronto Raptors	Golden State Warriors	4-2	206	201	407	0.35	0.378
2019-2020	Los Angeles Lakers	Miami Heat	4-2	239	189	428	0.351	0.365
2020-2021	Milwaukee Bucks	Phoenix Suns	4-2	187	172	359	0.353	0.384
2021-2022	Golden State Warriors	Boston Celtics	4-2	251	211	462	0.367	0.408
2022-2023	Denver Nuggets	Miami Heat	4-1	129	169	298	0.333	0.343
2023-2024	Boston Celtics	Dallas Mavericks	4-1	207	152	359	0.338	0.316
2024-2025	Oklahoma City Thunder	Indiana Pacers	4-3	206	242	448	0.345	0.368