The NBA playoffs are currently in full swing, and after the NBA Championship on June 3rd, the next major event will be the draft.
Teams draft based on value, meaning the elite players tend to leave in the first round; however, how much of a correlation does draft position have with future NBA pay?
To assess this, the 2019 draft was selected to identify a player pool. Since all of the players drafted in 2019 would not be playing on their rookie contracts, this year was chosen. The draft selections (1-60) were identified using ESPN records. The current pay of the 2019 draftees was determined with Basketball Reference, using the 2025-2026 salary metric.
The independent variable in this study was the draft position of a given player, and the dependent variable was the amount of money the player is set to be paid in the 2025-2026 season. For players that are free agents, are playing in a different football league, or are retired, their 2025-2026 salary was listed as 0 for the purposes of this study.
Both rounds of the 2019 draft were analyzed together:
A correlation of r=-0.59 was found, indicating a negative, moderate-strong relationship. The negative correlation indicates that as draft number increases, 2025-2026 salary decreases. Since the relationship is moderate-strong, it is clear that while having a higher draft number points towards greater fiscal success, there is no guarantee. An r2 value of 35% was found, meaning that 65% of the factors that go into salary do not include draft number.
The first round of the 2019 draft was analyzed individually:
A similar correlation of r=-0.46 was found, indicating a negative, moderate relationship. The negative correlation indicates that as draft number increases, 2025-2026 salary decreases. Since the relationship is moderate, it is clear that while being a top-5 or top-10 pick points toward greater fiscal success, success is not guaranteed and can be found later in the first round.
The second round of the 2019 draft was analyzed individually:
A correlation of r=-0.29 was found, indicating a negative, weak relationship. The negative correlation indicates that as draft number increases, 2025-2026 salary decreases; however, since the relationship is weak, this information is largely irrelevant. Only 4 players from the second round of the 2019 NBA Draft (Nic Claxton, Cody Martin, Daniel Gafford, Terrance Mann) are currently being paid by an organization, indicating that talent is more difficult to find in the second round.
| 1 | 39446090 |
| 2 | 39446090 |
| 3 | 27705357 |
| 4 | 23303571 |
| 5 | 39446090 |
| 6 | 0 |
| 7 | 12888889 |
| 8 | 3449323 |
| 9 | 18259259 |
| 10 | 0 |
| 11 | 21057065 |
| 12 | 14152174 |
| 13 | 31000000 |
| 14 | 0 |
| 15 | 0 |
| 16 | 0 |
| 17 | 15161800 |
| 18 | 8333333 |
| 19 | 0 |
| 20 | 11550000 |
| 21 | 12500000 |
| 22 | 13645500 |
| 23 | 0 |
| 24 | 8781000 |
| 25 | 3107143 |
| 26 | 0 |
| 27 | 0 |
| 28 | 31848215 |
| 29 | 17500000 |
| 30 | 5134000 |
| 31 | 25352272 |
| 32 | 0 |
| 33 | 0 |
| 34 | 0 |
| 35 | 0 |
| 36 | 131970 |
| 37 | 0 |
| 38 | 14386320 |
| 39 | 0 |
| 40 | 0 |
| 41 | 0 |
| 42 | 0 |
| 43 | 0 |
| 44 | 0 |
| 45 | 0 |
| 46 | 0 |
| 47 | 0 |
| 48 | 15500000 |
| 49 | 0 |
| 50 | 0 |
| 51 | 0 |
| 52 | 0 |
| 53 | 0 |
| 54 | 0 |
| 55 | 0 |
| 56 | 0 |
| 57 | 0 |
| 58 | 0 |
| 59 | 0 |
| 60 | 0 |
